Obama and the Senate Democrats Will Still Win

I stand by my earlier post. I still believe President Obama is going to be re-elected. And I also still think that the Democrats are going to hold onto the Senate. If you’re looking for more reasons why, here’s a couple more.

As far as the national picture, there are more and more signs that the economy is slowly getting better. What seems to affect the election is not necessarily how the economy looks, but rather what direction it is moving in. It appears to be moving in the right direction, and it appears that people realize that. A new poll just released shows that more people think the economy will improve. More people are happy with the unemployment numbers and the housing numbers. And that can only help Obama.

What’s happening nationally has the potential to help Democrats in specific Senate races (and House and Governor’s races too). And what’s happening in those Senate races can also help Democrats nationally. Indiana is a good example. Richard Mourdock, the Republican candidate for Senate in Indiana, really put his foot in his mouth. He was talking about abortion and rape, and while trying to explain his views (the only abortions he supports are those to save the life of the mother), this is what he said:

“I struggled with it myself for a long time, but I came to realize life is that gift from God,” he said. “And I think even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that it is something that God intended to happen.”

He says that people are misinterpreting him. But no matter what he meant to say, this is what he said. He has tried to clarify what he meant, but unfortunately for him, in politics, once it’s already out there, the damage is done.

Mourdock’s comment makes it more likely that the Democrats will win the Senate seat in Indiana. But it also makes it more likely that Democrats win across the country. Why? It feeds into an existing narrative about the Republican Party being bad for women. On the issue of rape, for instance, there have been a lot of recent statements by Republicans that are terrible. (Todd Akin was just the tip of the iceberg.) And this comment by Mourdock reminds people again of how the Republican Party stands on the issue.

It’s true that not all Republicans think like this. But the head of the NRSC, John Cornyn, defended Mourdock. Mitt Romney, while he said he disagrees with what Mourdock said, is still supporting him. And with all the recent statements fresh in people’s minds, it paints a picture to voters that the entire Republican Party is like this. If it were just an isolated incident, it might not have that effect. But with person after person making such outrageous statements, the association is likely to stick. And so the Republican Party “brand” is associated with being bad on women’s issues. And that will have repercussions up and down the ticket.