My Final Predictions for the 2012 Election

It’s finally here! It’s Election Day! Tonight (hopefully) we’ll know who won a whole lot of different races. I haven’t looked at any exit polls or anything from today yet, so I figured there was still time to get in my last minute predictions for today.

Before you read though, if you haven’t voted, you should put down your computer and go vote. (Check here if you don’t know where to go.) This blog post will still be here when you get back.

Okay, you voted? Now on to my final predictions!

As I’ve said before, Obama will win. But here’s how it will go down:

Obama will win the following states: ME, VT, NH, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, PA, MD, DE, DC, VA, OH, MI, WI, IL, MN, IA, CO, NM, WA, OR, CA, NV, HI, and although it will be close, I think he’ll also win FL.

That gives a total of 332 Electoral College votes for Obama. That leaves the rest for Romney, for a total of 206.

In the Senate, I think the Democrats will win the following races: VT*, MA, RI, CT, NY, PA, NY, DE, MD, WV, VA, FL, OH, IN, MI, WI, MN, MO, ND, NM, MT, WA, and CA. I think King will win ME and caucus with the Democrats. That gives the Democrats a total of 55 seats and the Republicans 45. (*Bernie Sanders caucuses with the Democrats and is counted that way here.)

Part of me wants to give the Democrats NV as well, because their turnout operation is so good and helped Harry Reid when he looked vulnerable. But I don’t know that that’s going to happen. I also  thought the Democrats had a chance at AZ, but that doesn’t look likely.

I haven’t been following the House races as closely as I should have, so I don’t have much of a prediction on that. I don’t think anyone really believes the Democrats will pickup the House, though. Here’s what people are saying: Real Clear Politics says Republicans 224, Democrats 178, and 33 tossups. (If you evenly divide the tossups that gives something like 240-241 for the Republicans and 194-195 for the Democrats.) Sabato’s Crystal Ball says 239 Republicans and 196 Democrats. Election Projection says 240 Republicans and 195 Democrats..

There are lots more races, too. Governors, State Legislatures, Referendums. Unfortunately, I haven’t been following those as closely. I’ll leave those entirely to others.

As I said before, if you haven’t already, don’t forget to vote! We’ll soon see how this all turns out. Happy Election Day everyone!